Brock Lesnar is now the biggest PPV attraction in mixed martial arts, and has brought a large following of new fans who have the mistaken impression that he's 'unbeatable'. Before his past two fights many were questioning whether his credentials justified giving him a shot at the title, with some even unfairly comparing him to EliteXC YouTube sideshow attraction Kimbo Slice. In the aftermath of Lesnars UFC 100 victory the new question surrounding the former WWE champion has become who can beat this guy? Lesnar definitely is a freaky physical specimen combining size and strength with speed and agility. Hes also progressing by leaps and bounds as a fighter with every bout. Still, hes got a big deficit in experience to make up on the job as UFC heavyweight champion.
Lesnar is no doubt a handful for any opponent, but in many ways has been the beneficiary of favorable matchups throughout his MMA career. More recently, Frank Mir made a serious tactical error, thinking that he could absorb a beating on the ground and wait for a submission opportunity. Lesnar had gameplanned Mir perfectly, and implemented a fight plan that allowed him to pound his opponent mercilessly while avoiding the risk of submission. Neither observation is meant to diminish the significance of Lesnars victories, but to underscore the fact that hes not unbeatable. Heres five fighters who could do it:
1) FEDOR EMELIANENKO: While the acrimonious relationship between the Russian fighting god and the UFC brass makes this matchup unlikely, Brock Lesnar made news with his dismissal of Fedor at the press conference welcoming Couture back to the fold. The best news for Lesnar in this matchup is that it probably wont happen. The Last Emperor is as close to unbeatable as anyone in mixed martial arts. Fedor has defeated not only bigger opponents, but freakishly large opponents like K-1 kickboxer Hong-Man Choi and Kamala the Ugandan Giant doppelganger Zuluzhinho (whom he beat in a matter of seconds, essentially with one punch). The WAMMA World Heavyweight champion has striking power, submission mastery, and may be the toughest fighter mentally in the sport. Fedor might get taken down by the new UFC heavyweight champ, but hed reverse it from the bottom and win via armbar.
2) ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA: Nogueira would present Lesnar with another formidable challenge. The former Interim heavyweight champion has equal, if not superior, BJJ skills and has proven to be tougher and more durable than Mir. His five career losses are all via decision and came to the absolute highest level of competition (Fedor Emelianenko twice, Frank Mir, Josh Barnett and Dan Henderson). The UFC heavyweight division is notoriously thin, but among the current crop Nogueira is by far Lesnars worst matchup.
3) JOSH BARNETT: Barnett is another unlikely opponent for Lesnar, also due to his strained relationship with Dana White and current issues with his positive drug test. Still, with the exception of Fedor, Barnett could be the worst matchup in the sport for the new UFC champ. Lesnar is likely the more powerful of the two, but Barnett is an imposing physical presence himself at 63 250 lbs. Barnett also has a solid wrestling background, with the added dimension of his sizable submission repertoire. As his career has progressed, Barnett has become a more patient and tactically sound fighter and his standup game has improved significantly. Unfortunately for MMA fans, a matchup between Lesnar and Barnett is more likely to happen in an IGF pro wrestling event than in the UFC.
4) ALISTAIR OVEREEM: Overeem is bigger than Lesnar"260 pounds and 65 tall--and Mirko Cro Cop suggests that hes the *only* fighter in the world who could beat Fedor Emelianenko at this point. Hes got great standup including a kickboxing background that could cause Lesnar problems, as well as solid ground fighting ability. Hes yet another heavyweight that is unlikely to bend to Dana Whites contractual demands, and currently has a relationship with DREAM in Japan and Strikeforce in the US. Still, hes a dangerous matchup for any fighter on the planet.
5) RANDY COUTURE: Lesnars win over Couture was far from decisive, and it didnt have anything to do with the age disparity. Couture got caught with a big shot and it cost him the fight. Until that point, he was more than holding his own. He was making his opponent work hard, had the edge in the striking exchanges and had opened up a cut over Lesnars right eye. Granted, itll never be a favorable matchup on paper for Couture but at the same time Lesnar in no way proved his categorical superiority over The Natural. Couture's toughness and cerebral approach to fighting could make the rematch a different story entirely.
Lesnars next challenge is likely to be the winner of the Cain Velesquez/Shane Carwin match. Both are big, rugged competitors but are also beatable opponents for Lesnar. An intriguing matchup down the road could be against Croatian striking machine Mirko Cro Cop. Cro Cop has battled injuries over the past year or so but if he could come close to the form he demonstrated in winning the PRIDE Open Weight GP he could be another formidable challenge. At his best, Cro Cop is simply the most devastating striker in the sport. While the UFC is likely to set up 'favorable' matchups for Lesnar in the near term to allow them to take advantage of his PPV popularity, he'll have his hands full defending his UFC heavyweight title.
Lesnar is no doubt a handful for any opponent, but in many ways has been the beneficiary of favorable matchups throughout his MMA career. More recently, Frank Mir made a serious tactical error, thinking that he could absorb a beating on the ground and wait for a submission opportunity. Lesnar had gameplanned Mir perfectly, and implemented a fight plan that allowed him to pound his opponent mercilessly while avoiding the risk of submission. Neither observation is meant to diminish the significance of Lesnars victories, but to underscore the fact that hes not unbeatable. Heres five fighters who could do it:
1) FEDOR EMELIANENKO: While the acrimonious relationship between the Russian fighting god and the UFC brass makes this matchup unlikely, Brock Lesnar made news with his dismissal of Fedor at the press conference welcoming Couture back to the fold. The best news for Lesnar in this matchup is that it probably wont happen. The Last Emperor is as close to unbeatable as anyone in mixed martial arts. Fedor has defeated not only bigger opponents, but freakishly large opponents like K-1 kickboxer Hong-Man Choi and Kamala the Ugandan Giant doppelganger Zuluzhinho (whom he beat in a matter of seconds, essentially with one punch). The WAMMA World Heavyweight champion has striking power, submission mastery, and may be the toughest fighter mentally in the sport. Fedor might get taken down by the new UFC heavyweight champ, but hed reverse it from the bottom and win via armbar.
2) ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA: Nogueira would present Lesnar with another formidable challenge. The former Interim heavyweight champion has equal, if not superior, BJJ skills and has proven to be tougher and more durable than Mir. His five career losses are all via decision and came to the absolute highest level of competition (Fedor Emelianenko twice, Frank Mir, Josh Barnett and Dan Henderson). The UFC heavyweight division is notoriously thin, but among the current crop Nogueira is by far Lesnars worst matchup.
3) JOSH BARNETT: Barnett is another unlikely opponent for Lesnar, also due to his strained relationship with Dana White and current issues with his positive drug test. Still, with the exception of Fedor, Barnett could be the worst matchup in the sport for the new UFC champ. Lesnar is likely the more powerful of the two, but Barnett is an imposing physical presence himself at 63 250 lbs. Barnett also has a solid wrestling background, with the added dimension of his sizable submission repertoire. As his career has progressed, Barnett has become a more patient and tactically sound fighter and his standup game has improved significantly. Unfortunately for MMA fans, a matchup between Lesnar and Barnett is more likely to happen in an IGF pro wrestling event than in the UFC.
4) ALISTAIR OVEREEM: Overeem is bigger than Lesnar"260 pounds and 65 tall--and Mirko Cro Cop suggests that hes the *only* fighter in the world who could beat Fedor Emelianenko at this point. Hes got great standup including a kickboxing background that could cause Lesnar problems, as well as solid ground fighting ability. Hes yet another heavyweight that is unlikely to bend to Dana Whites contractual demands, and currently has a relationship with DREAM in Japan and Strikeforce in the US. Still, hes a dangerous matchup for any fighter on the planet.
5) RANDY COUTURE: Lesnars win over Couture was far from decisive, and it didnt have anything to do with the age disparity. Couture got caught with a big shot and it cost him the fight. Until that point, he was more than holding his own. He was making his opponent work hard, had the edge in the striking exchanges and had opened up a cut over Lesnars right eye. Granted, itll never be a favorable matchup on paper for Couture but at the same time Lesnar in no way proved his categorical superiority over The Natural. Couture's toughness and cerebral approach to fighting could make the rematch a different story entirely.
Lesnars next challenge is likely to be the winner of the Cain Velesquez/Shane Carwin match. Both are big, rugged competitors but are also beatable opponents for Lesnar. An intriguing matchup down the road could be against Croatian striking machine Mirko Cro Cop. Cro Cop has battled injuries over the past year or so but if he could come close to the form he demonstrated in winning the PRIDE Open Weight GP he could be another formidable challenge. At his best, Cro Cop is simply the most devastating striker in the sport. While the UFC is likely to set up 'favorable' matchups for Lesnar in the near term to allow them to take advantage of his PPV popularity, he'll have his hands full defending his UFC heavyweight title.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a consulting handicapper for a number of offshore sportsbooks and an authority on NFL football betting . He's a noted expert sports handicapping theory, as well as stock market investing. He contributes to a number of online media outlets providing insight on how to bet on NFL, MMA and boxing.
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